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欧州南東部諸国におけるアフリカ豚熱のリスク評価
Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe.
PMID: 32626162 PMCID: PMC7008867. DOI: 10.2903/j.efsa.2019.5861.
抄録
欧州委員会は、欧州南東部諸国（懸念地域、ROC）であるアルバニア、ボスニア・ヘルツェゴビナ、クロアチア、ギリシャ、コソボ、モンテネグロ、北マケドニア、セルビア、スロベニアでの導入を受けて、アフリカ豚熱（ASF）の蔓延リスクを推定し、ASFの蔓延の潜在的なリスク要因（指標）を特定するようEFSAに要請した。クロアチア、ギリシャ、スロベニアの3つのEU加盟国（MS）は、その地理的位置とASFのない状態を理由にROCに含まれています。各国の潜在的な危険因子（指標）に関する情報収集と施行中の関連EU規制に基づき、中華民国への導入後1年以内にASFが中華民国内で拡散する確率は非常に高いと推定されました（66％～100％）。この推定値は、中華民国のほとんどの国に存在する指標の数の多さと、これらの指標がASFの普及に及ぼす影響、特に国内豚部門の構造、イノシシの存在、社会的要因に関連することが知られていることを考慮して決定されました。指標の存在は中華民国の国によって異なる。どの国も導入後のASF拡散のリスクがあるが、一部の国では導入後のASF拡散の確率が高くなる可能性がある。また、中華民国でのASF導入後1年以内に、中華民国から中華民国外のEU MSにASFが拡散する確率は、非常に低い～低い（0％～15％）と推定された。この推定値は、中華民国に存在する指標と、1年以内に他のEUのMSへのASFの伝播の証拠がないブルガリアやルーマニアなどの南東ヨーロッパの既に感染している国との比較に基づいています。
The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) - Croatia, Greece and Slovenia - were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%). This estimate was determined after considering the high number of indicators present in most of the countries in the ROC and the known effect that these indicators can have on ASF spread, especially those related to the structure of the domestic pig sector, the presence of wild boar and social factors. The presence of indicators varies between countries in the ROC. Each country is at risk of ASF spread following introduction; however, some countries may have a higher probability of ASF spread following introduction. In addition, the probability of ASF spread from the ROC to EU MSs outside the ROC within one year after introduction of ASF in the ROC was estimated to be very low to low (from 0% to 15%). This estimate was based on the comparison of the indicators present in the ROC and the already affected countries in south-eastern Europe, such as Bulgaria and Romania, where there was no evidence of ASF spread to other EU MS within one year.
© 2019 European Food Safety Authority. EFSA Journal published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of European Food Safety Authority.